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An APRI policy brief examines how the Ukraine war has pushed up fertilizer prices sharply in 2022 compared with 2021, with Russia and Ukraine being major fertilizer suppliers to African countries. It argues food prices across Africa have risen steadily as a result and that African governments should invest in domestic fertilizer manufacturing rather than rely on short-term input subsidies.
Higher fertilizer costs squeeze farm margins and can cut future planted area and yields, supporting a firmer outlook for grain prices over time. For feed buyers the impact is mostly indirect and longer-term.
afripoli.orgOusman GajigoOct 5, 2022After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 114 past bullish geopolitics events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.2%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
