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USDA projects 2026 fertilizer costs of about $166 per acre for corn, up 5.3%, and about $57 per acre for soybeans, up 5.2%. StoneX's Josh Linville cites the Russia-Ukraine war, European production shortfalls, an uprising in Iran and a lack of Chinese exports as keeping costs high.
Higher input costs squeeze grower margins while grain prices stay low, which can reduce application rates over time. Supply disruptions keep nitrogen and phosphate prices firm into the growing season.
farmprogress.comBruce BlytheFeb 13, 2026After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 114 past bullish geopolitics events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.2%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
