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Retail fertilizer prices rose in April 2022, with anhydrous and UAN32 at all-time highs and MAP near its record. The AMIS Market Monitor attributed the increases to Russia's large role in nitrogen exports and supply shortages in western Europe.
Reuters reported that sanctions on Belarus and Russia and Chinese export curbs were lifting crop nutrient prices, and wheat also climbed on supply concerns.
Sanctions and export restrictions on nitrogen and phosphate supply raise input costs for grain and feed producers. Tight fertilizer supply can also cut planted area and support grain prices, including wheat.
farmpolicynews.illinois.eduKeith GoodMay 6, 2022After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 114 past bullish geopolitics events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.2%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
