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Russia and Belarus together supply about 40% of traded potash, and sanctions and the Ukraine war have slowed trade with Russia. CRU's head of fertilisers expects fertilizer prices to keep rising amid higher energy and fuel costs.
Concerns are growing about lower crop yields in Brazil, the largest fertilizer importer.
Supply constraints in potash and nitrogen, together with high energy costs, support fertilizer prices and raise production costs for feed grains.
smallcaps.com.auLouis AllenApr 27, 2022Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, UREA moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 136 past bullish geopolitics events, NATGAS moved a median +2.7% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -1.8% to +8.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
