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Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has slowed sharply, with only six commercial vessels transiting on one Sunday, many with tracking systems off. Analysts say the strait is effectively shut for practical purposes.
Fertilizer prices are rising as the market prices in fewer vessels and higher risk for fall supplies.
Roughly a fifth of global fertilizer exports move through Hormuz, so disruption pushes up urea and other nitrogen and phosphate costs. Higher input prices squeeze feed grain margins and can lift corn and other crop prices over time.
agweb.comTyne MorganJul 14, 2026After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 114 past bullish geopolitics events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.2%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
