WTO data confirms Strait of Hormuz fertilizer trade disruption is easing as urea nears pre-war price

After 17 past bearish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median -1.9% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -3.1% to +2.8%), and +0.2% over 20.

• Jun 18, 2026Fertilizer, fuel prices drop with all eyes on Strait of Hormuz | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-3.1%
• Aug 25, 2026UN proposes Oman-based mechanism to restore fertilizer transit through Strait of Hormuz — Fertilizer Daily+11.1%
• Jul 1, 2026Fertiliser prices tumble as traders look beyond Middle East disruption-6.6%
• Jun 24, 2026NOLA urea prices drop 55% from April peak as Hormuz ceasefire and renewed Chinese exports reshape the market — Fertilizer Daily-1.9%
• Jun 22, 2026Urea fertilizer prices tumble as strait reopens | The Western Producer-2.4%

After 114 past bullish geopolitics events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.2%), and +0.3% over 20.

• May 28, 2026OCP warns Hormuz disruption has evolved into global fertilizer supply shock — Fertilizer Daily+1.6%
• Jul 14, 2026The Strait of Hormuz Is Technically Still Open. So Why Are Fertilizer Prices Climbing? - AgWeb+1.4%
• May 1, 2026Strait of Hormuz Closure Nears 10-Week Mark, Keeping Fertilizer Markets Tight Worldwide - RFD+4.8%
• Jul 8, 2025Closure of Strait of Hormuz: A Looming Threat to Already High Fertilizer Costs - AgWeb+0.7%
• Sep 18, 2026How are fertilizer markets coping with the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz? | CGIAR System+0.3%