
Urea fell to its lowest price of 2026, trading at $340 a short ton for July at New Orleans, down from about $360 the prior week. Bloomberg's North America fertilizer price index also dropped, down 21% in the past month, as markets anticipated the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Falling urea prices reduce nitrogen input costs for feed grain and livestock producers. The decline reflects expected resumption of Gulf trade flows, so further easing depends on shipments actually arriving.
After 17 past bearish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median -1.9% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -3.1% to +2.8%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.