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Urea fell about 18% to $640 a ton in New Orleans after Iran said the Strait of Hormuz was open to commercial traffic. Stranded cargoes will still take more than a month to reach the US Gulf and Midwest.
Expected resumption of Gulf supply pressures urea prices lower, though near-term relief is limited by shipping delays. Lower input costs may support a return to larger planted acreage later.
After 17 past bearish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median -1.9% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -3.1% to +2.8%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.