
Urea barge prices in New Orleans fell to $350 per ton on June 22, less than half the wartime peak of $782. The drop followed the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and China's return to the export market, with about 200,000 tonnes moving through the strait since the ceasefire.
Reopened Hormuz flows and Chinese exports add supply to a market where the Middle East supplies about a third of global urea trade, pushing prices lower during the Northern Hemisphere off-season.
After 17 past bearish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median -1.9% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -3.1% to +2.8%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.