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Fertilizer shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have started to pick up following an interim deal to end the Iran war announced June 15. About 640,000 tonnes of sulphur and 427,000 tonnes of urea have transited since then, far above wartime volumes.
Analysts say flows will take time to return to pre-conflict levels.
Resumed Gulf urea and sulphur flows ease the supply squeeze that lifted fertilizer prices, which should pressure urea and DAP prices lower as cargoes arrive. Full normalization is not expected until later in the summer, so relief will be gradual.
producer.comReutersJun 26, 2026After 17 past bearish geopolitics events, UREA moved a median -1.9% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -3.1% to +2.8%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 126 past geopolitics events, DAP moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.2%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Fertilizer and sulphur shipments resuming through Hormuz after the June 15 interim deal ease input-cost and supply fears, a plausible driver of a sharp DAP price drop, though the event is dated a day after the move.
