Morocco's OCP cut production about 30% in the second quarter after sulphur prices rose following Hormuz disruptions. It is returning to full output by the end of June and shifting toward low-sulphur TSP, which now makes up 65% of its Nutricrops volumes.
Full OCP output adds DAP supply, which is bearish for DAP prices. The shift to TSP supports TSP supply and reduces the sulphur exposure that drove costs higher.
After 126 past geopolitics events, DAP moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.2%), and +0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
OCP's return to full output by end-June and its shift to low-sulphur TSP point to more Moroccan phosphate supply and less sulphur dependence, which is bearish for DAP.