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Rabobank analyst Vitor Pistoia describes a two-year bull market in farm inputs that peaked after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, when nitrogen, phosphate and potash reference prices jumped 48%, 32% and 37% in the first 30 days. Farmers cut fertilizer application as demand destruction set in, while Russian and Belarusian exports continued despite sanctions.
Demand destruction in fertilizer application can lower yields and crop output, while the ongoing export flows from Russia and Belarus shape nutrient supply and price direction.
sfs.org.auFeb 17, 2023After 17 past bearish geopolitics events, UREA moved a median -1.9% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -3.1% to +2.8%), and +0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 126 past geopolitics events, DAP moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.2%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
