
Russia is using its natural gas to produce urea, which is exempt from European Union sanctions, and exporting it to Europe. Yara says the practice is substantial and is distorting the EU urea market.
The sanctions on Russian gas have already raised energy costs for European fertilizer producers.
Sanction-exempt Russian urea flowing into Europe adds supply to a market already facing high gas-driven production costs, which tends to weigh on European urea prices while keeping the cost floor high.
After 17 past bearish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median -1.9% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -3.1% to +2.8%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.