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Iran's president said a broad outline had been agreed with the USA and other nations to end oil, petrochemical and banking restrictions. Sanctions since 2018 had blocked Iranian urea from key markets such as India, forcing discounted sales elsewhere, and oil markets are already pricing in easing.
Easing sanctions would let Iranian urea return to major import tenders such as India's, adding supply and likely pressuring global urea prices. Trade flows could shift back toward Iranian origin at competitive prices.
profercy.comChris YearsleyMay 24, 2021profercy.comChris YearsleyMay 24, 2021After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 17 past bearish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median -1.9% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -3.1% to +2.8%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
