
US crude fell 4.2% to $68.06 on July 16, 2018 after Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said some oil buyers could receive waivers to keep buying Iranian crude despite US sanctions. Libyan port reopenings also eased supply concerns.
Possible sanctions waivers would keep more Iranian barrels on the market, adding supply and pressuring crude prices.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.