
Brent traded near $74.17 and WTI near $65.96 on Wednesday, both slightly lower, as markets appeared adequately supplied despite a 2019 high earlier in the week. The US had moved to end all Iran oil sanctions exemptions from May.
Ample supply limits the upside from tighter Iran sanctions, but steep backwardation shows prompt tightness that supports spot energy costs.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.