Oil prices fell on Thursday as diplomatic efforts to restart US-Iran talks eased concerns about Middle East supply. Brent was near $110.54 and the EIA reported a surprise commercial crude draw of about 1.9 million barrels for the week ended Oct.
23.
Easing Middle East supply risk lowers crude and energy-linked costs, which weighs on biofuel margins and soybean oil and corn demand from ethanol. The unexpected inventory draw limits the downside.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.