
Oil prices declined after U.S. and Israeli officials sought to ease concerns over the Iran war, with Trump's comments pushing prices lower. Brent settled above $112 a barrel, leaving weekly gains near 9%, and traded near $108 in thin post-settlement trading.
Easing war rhetoric lowers the near-term risk premium in crude, which can soften biofuel and input cost expectations for feed. Prices remain near multi-year highs, so the downside is limited while Hormuz flows stay disrupted.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, BRENT moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, WTI moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.