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The UN and Türkiye brokered the Black Sea Grain Initiative, signed by the UN, Russia, Türkiye and Ukraine on 22 July 2022, to restore grain and fertilizer exports from Ukraine after Russia's invasion blocked its ports. Ukraine normally supplies about 45 million tonnes of grain a year, and the blockade had pushed up global staple food prices.
Restoring Ukrainian grain flows adds supply to a market that had been tight, which weighs on wheat and corn prices. Reopened fertilizer exports also ease input costs for growers.
news.un.org© FAO/Giuseppe BizzarriSep 16, 2022After 87 past bearish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 80 past bearish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 17 past bearish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median -1.9% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -3.1% to +2.8%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
