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The Romanian Black Sea port of Constanta has handled 1.46 million tonnes of Ukrainian grain since Russia's February invasion halted shipments from Ukraine's own Black Sea ports. The first grain ship under a safe passage agreement has now left Odesa, and Ukrainian grain also moves by road, rail and barge via the Danube.
Reopening Ukraine's Black Sea export route returns a large volume of wheat and corn to world markets, which is bearish for prices. The effect depends on how much the safe passage arrangement actually lifts shipments.
markets.bostonherald.comAssociated PressMar 6, 2019After 80 past bearish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 87 past bearish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
