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Russian attacks on energy infrastructure and Black Sea ports are delaying grain acceptance and shipment in Ukraine. Ukraine exported 1.045 million tonnes of corn from December 1 to 17, but cumulative shipments are 68% slower than last year, and Ukrainian corn export prices fell $3-4/t per week to $202-205/t.
Port strikes raise Ukrainian logistics costs and reduce export competitiveness, while weak external demand and aggressive US and Brazilian offers keep corn prices under pressure. Chicago corn futures are near $173/t.
en.usm.mediaNinaDec 19, 2025After 87 past bearish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
