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AIS ship-tracking data shows dozens of vessels stalled at the Kerch Strait after Russia's coastguard rammed a Ukrainian naval tug. Unconfirmed reports say Ukrainian Sea of Azov ports such as Berdyansk and Mariupol are effectively blockaded.
The Kremlin denies restricting shipping.
A real blockade would halt grain and other bulk loadings from two Ukrainian ports and raise freight and insurance costs for Azov routes. The claims are unconfirmed, but the risk supports wheat and ocean freight prices.
intellinews.comBen Aris in BerlinNov 30, 2018After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
