Satellite images reveal damage to Ukraine grain ports

After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.

• Oct 30, 2022U.N., Turkey Race to Save Ukraine Grain Deal-5.6%
• Aug 3, 2023Ukraine struggles to export its grain — as Russia repeatedly strikes its ports : NPR+0.5%
• Jun 2, 2023Ukraine has 'plan B' to continue exports if grain deal collapses, minister says | Reuters-3.8%
• Feb 24, 2022Ukraine shuts ports as conflict threatens grain supplies | Reuters+6.8%
• Apr 15, 2022Ukraine says grain on ships in blocked Black Sea ports may deteriorate | Reuters-0.7%

After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Oct 30, 2022U.N., Turkey Race to Save Ukraine Grain Deal-2.2%
• Aug 3, 2023Ukraine struggles to export its grain — as Russia repeatedly strikes its ports : NPR-0.6%
• Jun 2, 2023Ukraine has 'plan B' to continue exports if grain deal collapses, minister says | Reuters-1.5%
• Feb 24, 2022Ukraine shuts ports as conflict threatens grain supplies | Reuters+6.5%
• Apr 15, 2022Ukraine says grain on ships in blocked Black Sea ports may deteriorate | Reuters+2.1%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.