Black Sea ports still the best way to get Ukraine's grain moving fast

After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.

• Mar 17, 2023Russia Still Slow-Walking Ukraine Food Exports in Black Sea Grain Deal-3.7%
• Apr 15, 2022Ukraine says grain on ships in blocked Black Sea ports may deteriorate | Reuters-0.7%
• Jun 1, 2023Ukraine says Russia again blocking Black Sea grain export deal | Reuters-3.6%
• Aug 1, 2026Ukraine's Black Sea ports lose a third of grain export capacity, farmers' union says-0.8%
• Jun 15, 2022Unblocking the Black Sea for Ukrainian Grain | RAND-2.3%

After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Mar 17, 2023Russia Still Slow-Walking Ukraine Food Exports in Black Sea Grain Deal-1.0%
• Apr 15, 2022Ukraine says grain on ships in blocked Black Sea ports may deteriorate | Reuters+2.1%
• Jun 1, 2023Ukraine says Russia again blocking Black Sea grain export deal | Reuters-2.2%
• Aug 1, 2026Ukraine's Black Sea ports lose a third of grain export capacity, farmers' union says-0.1%
• Jun 15, 2022Unblocking the Black Sea for Ukrainian Grain | RAND-1.6%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.