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Fertilizer prices remain volatile as disruption through the Strait of Hormuz and Russian supply problems tighten nitrogen markets. Several countries that are major nitrogen exporters are affected by the Hormuz closure.
Lost nitrogen export volumes raise urea and other nitrogen fertilizer costs, which feeds into farm input costs and can shift planting decisions and future grain supply.
iowapbs.orgOct 13, 2026After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
