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An IFPRI analysis finds that global food and fertilizer prices, which spiked in 2021-22, have receded close to pre-pandemic levels though they remain somewhat elevated. The authors note that the Israel-Hamas war and Middle East tensions have created new shipment bottlenecks for fertilizer.
Africa, where fertilizer use is limited, still faces lingering affordability problems.
Renewed shipping bottlenecks through the Middle East can lift nitrogen and phosphate freight and delivered costs. This supports fertilizer prices and feed-grain production costs at the margin.
ifpri.orgBrendan Rice, Rob VosMar 21, 2024After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
