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Fertilizer prices have reached their highest levels in years, with urea in New Orleans hitting its highest since 2012 and DAP at its most expensive since 2008. Extreme weather, plant shutdowns and new government sanctions have all tightened supply this year.
Farmers are cutting application rates or delaying purchases.
Higher fertilizer costs can reduce application rates and planted acreage, which threatens yields and raises feed grain prices into next year. Analysts expect the cost pressure to pass through to food prices.
farmprogress.comBloombergSep 21, 2021After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 114 past bullish geopolitics events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.2%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Urea in New Orleans at its highest since 2012 reflects tight supply, though it predates the final-week surge.
