DTN reports that UAN32, UAN28, and anhydrous ammonia retail fertilizer prices rose in the second week of October 2026, with UAN32 up 6% month over month to $486 per ton. The Strait of Hormuz conflict is cited as disrupting fertilizer supply chains.
Higher nitrogen and phosphorus input costs raise expected grain production costs and can support corn and wheat prices over the coming season.
After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 114 past bullish geopolitics events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.2%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.