Insight: Global crop problems point to years of high food prices

After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.

• Mar 21, 2022Insight: Wheat prices soar on Ukraine fears, but U.S. growers can't cash in | Reuters+15.8%
• Feb 23, 2022Winter Wheat Prices Touch 9-Year High on Russia, Ukraine Fears - Bloomberg+6.4%
• Aug 28, 2026Corn and wheat prices jump to highest prices in more than three years+3.3%
• Mar 5, 2026How the Iran war could create a ‘fertiliser shock’ – an often ignored global risk to food prices and farming+1.7%
• Feb 24, 2022Dollar jumps to near two-year high as Russia invades Ukraine | Reuters+6.8%

After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Sep 21, 2021Food prices poised to surge with fertilizer at highest in years+1.8%
• Jan 12, 2023Corn prices to stay elevated as global supplies ‘remain tight’+2.2%
• Feb 23, 2022Winter Wheat Prices Touch 9-Year High on Russia, Ukraine Fears - Bloomberg+7.5%
• Aug 28, 2026Corn and wheat prices jump to highest prices in more than three years+0.6%
• Mar 5, 2026How the Iran war could create a ‘fertiliser shock’ – an often ignored global risk to food prices and farming+2.4%

After 72 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +2.5%), and -1.0% over 20.

• Jul 17, 2023Russia-Ukraine grain deal: What does it mean for global food prices+0.4%
• Apr 22, 2022Winds Of War, Drought Push New-Crop Corn, Soybean Prices Higher-2.4%
• Jul 20, 2023Grain prices rise after Russian pullout of Black Sea deal sparks food crisis fears | Commodities | The Guardian+3.7%
• Feb 24, 2022Food inflation risks balloon as prices of wheat to palm oil soar | INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY NEWS - Business Standard+0.1%
• Mar 6, 2026U.S. Grain/Oilseed Review: Fears of oil shortage drives up prices | The Western Producer+4.2%

After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.

• Sep 21, 2021Food prices poised to surge with fertilizer at highest in years+2.7%
• Mar 21, 2022Fertiliser prices hit new highs as multiple problems affect global supplies | Food security | The Guardian+2.5%
• Mar 3, 2026Global oil and gas prices soar as Iran crisis disrupts shipping, production | Reuters+10.0%
• May 6, 2026Nutrien posts higher profit as prices rise, flags tight nitrogen supply | Reuters-4.5%
• Mar 5, 2026How the Iran war could create a ‘fertiliser shock’ – an often ignored global risk to food prices and farming+3.0%