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Soybean futures at the Chicago Board of Trade rose on Friday after Qatar's energy minister warned that Gulf oil production could halt because of the war. Corn futures also rose, following crude oil higher, and USDA's monthly supply and demand report is due on Tuesday.
The war-driven crude rally lifts soyoil and biofuel economics and feeds through to grain futures, while expected Chinese buying of US soybeans adds support. Traders will watch the USDA report for supply revisions.
producer.comMar 6, 2026After 72 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +2.5%), and -1.0% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 110 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybean Oil moved a median +1.8% over 5 sessions (65% higher; middle half -0.7% to +3.6%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
