
ICE canola futures rose sharply on Monday to fresh contract highs in new-crop months, helped by gains in soyoil, rapeseed and palm oil. Concerns over reduced Ukrainian sunflower output and Black Sea export disruption added support, while a USDA report was due Friday.
Lower Ukrainian sunflower supply and Black Sea disruption tighten global vegetable oil and meal markets, supporting canola and related oilseed prices.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 110 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybean Oil moved a median +1.8% over 5 sessions (65% higher; middle half -0.7% to +3.6%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 62 past bullish geopolitics events, Palm Oil moved a median +2.5% over 5 sessions (74% higher; middle half -0.1% to +5.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.