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ICE canola futures were mixed on Friday, with old-crop contracts falling and new-crop November gaining to C$848.30 per tonne. Soyoil spiked after US warnings of a possible Russian attack on Ukraine, and USDA reported a 108,000-tonne soybean sale to China for 2022/23.
A sharp soyoil rally and a new China soybean sale support vegetable oil and soybean prices, while geopolitical risk lifts crude oil and edible oil values.
ukragroconsult.comFeb 14, 2022After 110 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybean Oil moved a median +1.8% over 5 sessions (65% higher; middle half -0.7% to +3.6%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 72 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +2.5%), and -1.0% over 20.
After 34 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +3.5%), and +1.2% over 20.
After 62 past bullish geopolitics events, Palm Oil moved a median +2.5% over 5 sessions (74% higher; middle half -0.1% to +5.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
