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Crude palm futures in Malaysia rose almost 5% and CBOT soyoil spiked in early Asian trade on Oct 31 after Russia said it would no longer take part in the UN-brokered Black Sea grain corridor. CBOT soyoil traded up more than 2% near 73.4 cents per pound.
Palm, soyoil and sunflower oil are linked as competing vegetable oils.
Russia's exit from the corridor raises doubts over Ukrainian sunflower oil exports, lifting competing palm and soyoil prices in the near term.
ukragroconsult.comNov 1, 2022After 62 past bullish geopolitics events, Palm Oil moved a median +2.5% over 5 sessions (74% higher; middle half -0.1% to +5.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
After 110 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybean Oil moved a median +1.8% over 5 sessions (65% higher; middle half -0.7% to +3.6%), and -0.4% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Reports palm rose almost 5% and soyoil spiked on Oct 31 after Russia's withdrawal, with vegetable oils substituting for each other, directly describing the move.
Explains the mechanism: the Black Sea corridor suspension lifted soyoil and sunflower oil, and palm followed as a competing vegetable oil (substitution and sentiment).
