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Russia's invasion of Ukraine is expected to disrupt vegetable oil and grain trade, with key Black Sea ports shut and vessel movements blocked. Both countries are major suppliers of grains and vegetable oils, and the disruption could add to food inflation.
Lost sunflower oil and grain exports tighten global vegetable oil and grain supply, supporting soyoil, palm oil, wheat and corn prices.
spglobal.comFeb 24, 2022After 110 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybean Oil moved a median +1.8% over 5 sessions (65% higher; middle half -0.7% to +3.6%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 62 past bullish geopolitics events, Palm Oil moved a median +2.5% over 5 sessions (74% higher; middle half -0.1% to +5.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Russia's invasion and Black Sea port closures threaten sunflower oil and grain flows, pushing buyers toward palm oil and lifting prices.
Blocked Black Sea ports and vessel movements disrupt grain trade flows, supporting corn prices.
