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Attacks on Black Sea ports, grain terminals and commercial vessels since July have disrupted grain exports from Russia and Ukraine during the key post-harvest shipping period. Russian strikes on Odesa-region ports removed about one-third of Ukraine's grain export capacity, according to S&P Global Energy CERA.
Restrictions on the Kerch Strait and Azov-Don channel affected a route handling an estimated 28% of Russia's wheat exports.
Reduced export capacity from two of the largest wheat exporters tightens global wheat supply and supports export prices, and corn flows are also at risk from storage shortfalls.
spglobal.comLalita AvdAug 20, 2026After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
