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S&P Global analysis says Russia's invasion of Ukraine adds strain to the food chain, with Russia and Ukraine supplying about 21% of global wheat exports in 2021. It adds that Russia and Belarus are major fertilizer exporters, so the indirect fertilizer price effect may be a bigger concern than lost food exports.
Lost Black Sea wheat supply and costlier fertilizer both push grain and feed input prices higher, especially for importers reliant on Russian and Ukrainian supply.
spglobal.comJun 16, 2022After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
