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Commodity prices surged after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, with oil passing $100 a barrel, aluminum hitting a record and wheat reaching a nine-year high. A month into the conflict, inflation has risen, a wheat shortage is deepening food crises in countries such as Egypt, and growth forecasts are being cut.
Glencore said global trade flows will need to adapt to lost Russian and Ukrainian supply.
Sustained supply losses from Russia and Ukraine keep wheat and energy prices elevated, raising feed and input costs for buyers.
dw.comAshutosh PandeyMar 23, 2022After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Wheat hit a nine-year high with a deepening shortage and lost Russian and Ukrainian supply, giving the macro supply backdrop for the rally.
