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Treasury yields fell as Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24. The dollar gained almost 1% against major currencies, and oil briefly rose more than 7% before trimming gains with risk assets.
The invasion lifts energy and grain risk premia and boosts safe-haven demand for the dollar, with oil spikes feeding through to feed and biofuel input costs.
reuters.comHerbert LashFeb 24, 2022After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 89 past bullish geopolitics events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (74% higher; middle half -0.0% to +1.0%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
