Oil rises 2% on supply worries as Russia-Ukraine war escalates

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Feb 22, 2022Oil settles near 2014 high on Russia-Ukraine escalation | Reuters+6.1%
• Mar 31, 2025Oil prices climb 2% to five-week high on Russia, Iran supply worries-9.7%
• Apr 18, 2022Oil rises over 1% as Libya outages add to Russia supply fears-4.8%
• Aug 7, 2023The Commodities Feed: Russia-Ukraine tensions add to oil supply risks | articles | ING THINK+0.6%
• Aug 21, 2025Oil rises 1% on stalled Russia-Ukraine peace talks, strong US demand | Reuters+1.0%

After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.

• Feb 22, 2022Oil settles near 2014 high on Russia-Ukraine escalation | Reuters+5.3%
• Mar 31, 2025Oil prices climb 2% to five-week high on Russia, Iran supply worries-10.5%
• Apr 18, 2022Oil rises over 1% as Libya outages add to Russia supply fears-4.0%
• Aug 7, 2023The Commodities Feed: Russia-Ukraine tensions add to oil supply risks | articles | ING THINK+0.5%
• Aug 21, 2025Oil rises 1% on stalled Russia-Ukraine peace talks, strong US demand | Reuters+0.8%