Oil rises over 1% as Libya outages add to Russia supply fears

After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.

• Jan 19, 2022Oil rises to 7-year high as Turkey outage adds to tight supply outlook+1.0%
• Sep 27, 2018Oil rises as investors fret over Iranian supply gaps+6.1%
• Oct 2, 2026Oil Rises as Mideast Tensions Sustain Supply-Disruption Fears-1.5%
• Dec 3, 2024Oil rises on fears about Lebanon, further OPEC+ supply cuts | Reuters+0.4%
• Nov 21, 2024Oil rises 2% on supply worries as Russia-Ukraine war escalates-0.3%

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Jan 19, 2022Oil rises to 7-year high as Turkey outage adds to tight supply outlook+0.8%
• Sep 27, 2018Oil rises as investors fret over Iranian supply gaps+5.2%
• Oct 2, 2026Oil Rises as Mideast Tensions Sustain Supply-Disruption Fears+7.5%
• Dec 3, 2024Oil rises on fears about Lebanon, further OPEC+ supply cuts | Reuters+0.8%
• Nov 21, 2024Oil rises 2% on supply worries as Russia-Ukraine war escalates-0.3%