
US crude rose 55 cents to settle at $72.12 a barrel on September 27, and Brent futures were near $81.55. Markets priced in a possible supply shortfall once US sanctions on Iran take effect in about five weeks.
Saudi Arabia reportedly planned to add extra oil to offset the drop in Iranian output.
Tighter crude supply lifts diesel and fuel costs for feed mills and transport, and it supports biofuel economics that tie into soybean oil and corn demand. Higher energy prices also feed through to fertilizer and freight costs.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.