
Oil rose more than 1% on supply risks from Iraq and a draw in US crude inventories. OPEC+ was also expected to keep its existing reduced output deal at a Monday meeting, according to delegates.
Supply disruption risk in Iraq and a tighter US inventory position support crude prices, which flow through to diesel and biofuel costs for feed supply chains.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, BRENT moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, WTI moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.