Oil prices jumped about 4% to a one-week high on Tuesday as renewed US-Iran fighting revived supply concerns. Brent rose $3.44 to $93.93 and WTI rose $3.72 to $89.48.
The US launched new air strikes on Iranian targets, while Tehran warned it would block Gulf oil exports and the US Treasury signaled new sanctions.
Escalation threatens Gulf export flows and Hormuz shipping, a major supply risk that is likely to keep crude prices elevated. Higher energy costs raise diesel, freight and fertilizer costs for feed supply chains.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.