Prices for oil and fuel cargoes hit record highs as attacks on oil and gas facilities across the Middle East caused the largest-ever disruption to global energy supplies. Iran has throttled traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about 20% of world oil and gas, threatening ships attempting transit.
Dubai crude reached a record $166.80 a barrel.
A severe Hormuz disruption removes a large share of seaborne energy supply, driving up crude, diesel and natural gas costs. Higher energy and fertilizer-related input costs push up feed production expenses and support prices for competing commodities.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 136 past bullish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.7% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -1.8% to +8.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Record oil and fuel cargo prices and the largest-ever energy supply disruption signal escalation, though dated March 19, after the window ends.