
The US dollar jumped and the Russian rouble tumbled to a record low after Russia launched a massed invasion of Ukraine. The dollar index rose about 1.5% and reached its highest since June 2020, with the rouble down 6.7%.
A sharp dollar rally raises costs for importers buying dollar-priced feed ingredients and adds volatility to global grain markets. Russia's currency collapse may also disrupt Black Sea export pricing.
After 89 past bullish geopolitics events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (74% higher; middle half -0.0% to +1.0%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Reports the dollar surge and rouble collapse on the invasion, though it is dated 02-25 and its figure of about 1.5% is a bit higher than the measured move.