Export issues ahead as Russia invades Ukraine: Analyst’s insight

After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.

• Feb 24, 2022Wheat, soybeans hit nine-year highs as Russia invades Ukraine+6.8%
• Jan 31, 2022Grain exports likely disrupted in a Russian, Ukraine conflict, analyst says-1.7%
• Sep 15, 2023Why Is Russia Blocking Ukraine's Food Exports?+0.1%
• Feb 24, 2022Commodity supplies at risk as Russia invades Ukraine | Reuters+6.8%
• Oct 10, 2024Ukraine: Russia kills eight in latest attack on Odesa port-0.5%

After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Feb 24, 2022Wheat, soybeans hit nine-year highs as Russia invades Ukraine+6.5%
• Jan 31, 2022Grain exports likely disrupted in a Russian, Ukraine conflict, analyst says+0.6%
• Sep 15, 2023Why Is Russia Blocking Ukraine's Food Exports?-7.1%
• Feb 24, 2022Commodity supplies at risk as Russia invades Ukraine | Reuters+6.5%
• Oct 10, 2024Ukraine: Russia kills eight in latest attack on Odesa port-2.6%

After 110 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybean Oil moved a median +1.8% over 5 sessions (65% higher; middle half -0.7% to +3.6%), and -0.4% over 20.

• Jan 1, 2026Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports cause drop in food exports+0.3%
• Feb 24, 2022Factbox: Russia’s Ukraine invasion seen disrupting vegetable oil, grain trade flows+5.0%
• Mar 11, 2022Overcoming the threats to global food systems from Russia's invasion of Ukraine | IFPRI-6.3%
• Jul 27, 2026Black Sea grain trapped as Russia, Ukraine attacks continue | World Grain-5.7%
• Feb 28, 2022Euro slides with U.S. stock futures as Ukraine risks rise+4.7%