Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports cause drop in food exports

After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.

• Aug 25, 2026Grain exports stall as Ukraine steps up attacks on Russia+1.7%
• Jun 15, 2026Focus: Russian attacks could cut Ukraine grain exports by a third | Reuters+3.6%
• Aug 20, 2026Attacks on Black Sea ships and ports drive sharp drop in grain exports-1.3%
• Jan 8, 2026Ukraine Grain Exports Drop 16% in December as Russian Strikes Hit Ports - Bloomberg-0.2%
• Oct 10, 2024Ukraine: Russia kills eight in latest attack on Odesa port-0.5%

After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Jun 15, 2026Focus: Russian attacks could cut Ukraine grain exports by a third | Reuters-0.8%
• Jan 8, 2026Ukraine Grain Exports Drop 16% in December as Russian Strikes Hit Ports - Bloomberg-3.4%
• Oct 10, 2024Ukraine: Russia kills eight in latest attack on Odesa port-2.6%
• Sep 15, 2023Why Is Russia Blocking Ukraine's Food Exports?-7.1%
• Mar 17, 2023Russia Still Slow-Walking Ukraine Food Exports in Black Sea Grain Deal-1.0%

After 110 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybean Oil moved a median +1.8% over 5 sessions (65% higher; middle half -0.7% to +3.6%), and -0.4% over 20.

• Jul 27, 2026Black Sea grain trapped as Russia, Ukraine attacks continue | World Grain-5.7%
• Aug 25, 2026Sea blockade cut Ukrainian vegetable oil exports in half – Ukroliyaprom+1.8%
• Feb 24, 2022Export issues ahead as Russia invades Ukraine: Analyst’s insight | AHDB+5.0%
• Apr 14, 2022Russian-Ukrainian Unrest Impacts Global Oilseed Market | Crush+2.7%
• Mar 30, 2022Failing Ukrainian, Russian peace talks drive up grain futures - Brownfield Ag News+266.2%