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Russia-Ukraine unrest has constricted global vegetable oil supplies, with Black Sea sunflower oil exports halted and Indonesian palm export controls in place. Importing countries such as South Africa can only partly substitute, and the market is expected to recover only in mid-to-late 2022.
Loss of Black Sea sunflower oil and Indonesian palm export restrictions keep vegetable oil prices elevated, and tighter oil supply supports demand for meal substitutes.
crushmag-online.comKatrina Rose WindApr 14, 2022After 110 past bullish geopolitics events, SBO moved a median +1.8% over 5 sessions (65% higher; middle half -0.7% to +3.6%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 62 past bullish geopolitics events, PALMOIL moved a median +2.5% over 5 sessions (74% higher; middle half -0.1% to +5.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
