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Oilseed prices have surged as the Russia-Ukraine war disrupted two of the largest sunflower oil and meal exporters. Ports have closed and shipping has halted, and export licensing in Ukraine means fob prices are no longer freely quoted.
Argentine Up River sunflower oil offers reached a record near $2,400 fob, up about 70% in a month.
With Russia and Ukraine supplying about 80% of traded sunflower meal and oil, restricted flows tighten global vegoil and meal supplies and support prices for substitutes.
world-grain.comChris LyddonApr 20, 2022Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 110 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybean Oil moved a median +1.8% over 5 sessions (65% higher; middle half -0.7% to +3.6%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 62 past bullish geopolitics events, Palm Oil moved a median +2.5% over 5 sessions (74% higher; middle half -0.1% to +5.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
