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A commentary on the Russia-Ukraine war says CBOT agricultural futures surged on February 24, with corn up more than 5% to its highest since June 2021 and soybeans at their highest since 2012. It notes Ukraine supplies about 16% of global corn exports and that China's corn import costs are likely to rise, feeding through to amino acid prices.
Loss of Black Sea corn and the resulting rise in Chinese import demand tighten feed grain supplies and lift feed ingredient costs. Higher corn and soymeal prices also push up the cost of amino acid feed additives.
reachever.comFeb 28, 2022After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 72 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +2.5%), and -1.0% over 20.
After 34 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +3.5%), and +1.2% over 20.
After 110 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybean Oil moved a median +1.8% over 5 sessions (65% higher; middle half -0.7% to +3.6%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
